PUSHING THE ENVELOPES
Oscar hopefuls and hopelesses

The Academy loves certain people and frowns on others. Tom Hanks has won Best Actor twice not because he's better than the competition, necessarily, but because he's a nice guy. Whereas John Malkovich, whose body of work is more impressive than Hanks's, is never even nominated. Evidently being John Malkovich is no shrimp cocktail. In a sense, the Oscars are a big popularity contest.

Put it this way: if I'm voting for Best Adapted Screenplay and the nominees are Brady and some pretentious jerk, I'm voting for Brady, even if the jerk wrote Casablanca.

With this in mind, here are my picks for who should win and who will win the major awards:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Should win: Fred Willard, Best in Show
Will win: Benicio del Toro, Traffic
Del Toro's was the best turn this year, but as the film's main character, should have been in the Best Actor category. Give the great comic actors some respect.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Should win: Erika Christensen, Traffic
Will win: Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
Hudson, newly wed to Black Crowes singer Chris Robinson, was delightful as Stillwater groupie Penny Lane. But Christensen's performance as strung-out high schooler was haunting. This award has historically gone to "It" girls (Angelina Jolie, Marissa Tomei, Mira Sorvino, etc.), and in the game of Hollywood A-list tag, Hudson is It.

BEST SONG
Should win: "I've Seen It All," Dancer in the Dark
Will win: "Things Have Changed," Wonder Boys
Snubbed by the Academy for the acting job of the year, Bjork is clearly not the favorite. Not when the voters comprise mostly Baby Boomers who have a soft spot for Bob Dylan.

BEST DRAMATIC SCORE
Should win: Nancy Wilson, Almost Famous
Will win: Tan Dun, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Capturing lesser awards like Dramatic Score, Cinematography, and Film Editing will be a Best Picture harbinger for Gladiator or Crouching Tiger. Pay attention.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Should win: Mexico, Amores Perros
Will win: Taiwan, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
A no-brainer. The Academy loves Ang Lee.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Should win: Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous
Will win: Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous
Susannah Grant could bump Crowe with Erin Brockovich, but she's up against his impressive resume of great screenplays (Fast Times at Ridgemont High, Say Anything…, Singles, Jerry Maguire). On Grant's is the schlocky Sandra Bullock vehicle 28 Days.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Should win: Stephen Gaghan, Traffic
Will win: Stephen Gaghan, Traffic
Again, the best movie usually gets this award. If Crouching Tiger wins here, it will win Best Picture, and I will change the channel.

BEST ACTOR
Should win: Benicio del Toro, Traffic
Will win: Russell Crowe, Gladiator
Del Toro's Javier Rodriguez-Rodriguez is the protagonist of the epic Traffic, so he should be here. Crowe mailed in his Maximus performance, but will win because he should have last year (The Insider).

BEST ACTRESS
Should win: Bjork, Dancer in the Dark
Will win: Julia Roberts, Erin Brockovich
Bet the house on this one. If you win, you get another house. If you lose, it's worth a piece of real estate to watch Julia deflate on national television.

BEST DIRECTOR
Should win: Steven Soderbergh, Traffic
Will win: Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon
Lee is like Merchant-Ivory, but more versatile, and more Oscar-friendly. Soderbergh's resume is better, and so are his entries in the competition. This will make Brady very happy.

BEST PICTURE
Should win: Traffic
Will win: Gladiator
I see this as a three-dog race, with Gladiator fighting off competition from the Wu-Tan and the DEA. I wouldn't be that surprised if Erin Brockovich won. Traffic, the best film of the year by far, is hurt because director Steven Soderbergh is nominated twice.